Nasa’s premature declaration of victory in poll is a false step

From this moment on, you have to be careful what you say and write because you might end up as the new Joshua arap Sang: There is going to be a new round of trials at the International Criminal Court and this time, without the Argentinian showman, the investigations are going to be more thorough.

So, speaking very carefully, I am of the opinion that by declaring his party boss the winner of the presidential election on Thursday, Mr Musalia Mudavadi may have opened the bottle again and loosed the devils of conflict upon us.

The 2017 General Election was not so much a loss for Nasa, given their confidence and the size and noise of the alliance they had brought together, it was very close to a rout.

An election is not just the presidency, it is also the galaxy of senators, governors, MPs and members of county assembly who have been elected on your ticket and whom you need to govern.

After the presidency, the crown jewel in the country is the governorship of Nairobi, the seat of the government, the industrial and commercial capital and the wealthiest region.

EVANS KIDERO

Dr Evans Kidero, the defeated governor, is not your common garden politician, he is a super-wealthy corporate titan and definitely a future presidential prospect.

He was felled by a man who, to put it mildly, is of humble means and roots.

When you consider the electoral map when Cord-allied parties lost the elections in 2013, Nasa hasn’t expanded it; rather, it has allowed Jubilee to raid their vote territory and cart away voters in unexpected numbers.

The primary source of Nasa votes was Nyanza (excluding Kisii), Western, Ukambani and the Coast.

They needed to have expanded the map and constructed a firewall around Kisii, Narok and Kajiado as the last defensive position.

Nasa also needed to raid the Jubilee strongholds, especially the restive parts of Tharaka Nithi and Nyambene in Meru to weaken President Uhuru Kenyatta in his own homeground.

PRONOUNCEMENTS

As a matter of fact, given their campaign itinerary and pronouncements, it was assumed that they had made inroads.

Also, aided by defeated Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, Nasa is supposed to have stormed Jubilee’s vote basket of Rift Valley to carry away as much as 40 per cent of the vote.

“The ground has shifted,” was the way it was being phrased.

As the results started coming in two days ago, it became clear that there was nothing of the sort; Nasa’s firewall was a cruel hoax.

Nasa ceded significant ground at the Coast, North Eastern went Jubilee, Nasa lost Kajiado outright, it shared Narok down the middle with Jubilee, it lost for Christ’s sake, Nyamira, and in Kisii it was a near-run thing.

It made no notable inroads into Mt Kenya and its penetration of the Rift Valley was, to say the least, shallow.

LABOSO

It’s Rift Valley pointman was walloped by Joyce Laboso in a one-sided contest. Whether you look at this from bottom or top, Nasa lost the election.

Even if they could pull off the sleight of hand move of declaring Mr Raila Odinga the winner, and they clearly will not, it is not clear whether he has the majority in Parliament to rule the country.

The basis of declaring victory is as flimsy as saying that Chris Msando’s password was being used to hack a database.

Basically, they said they had a leak from a whistleblower at the IEBC, who gave them the results showing that they had carried the day. It sounds like a B movie.

Declaring yourself winner in an election is like grabbing the crown from the hands of the bishop and putting it on your own head.

It has no effect for the power must come through the hands of those who have the lawful duty to give it.

GOOD ELECTION

Secondly, we had a good election. It was complex but well-managed, the equipment worked, the voting was transparent and free.

Observers were almost universally impressed by how we voted and the processes the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission had created to protect the vote.

The commission appears genuine and well-meaning and professional, unlike the previous ones that were packed with political rejects.

We are all agreed that Forms 34A — capturing the results at the polling station level and Forms 34B, showing the constituency level tallies — are accurate and inviolable records of how we voted.

If Nasa had raised objections on the basis of problems with the tallying of those records, Kenyans would have paused and listened.

LEGAL PROCESS

But to disregard the legal process and demand to be sworn in and given power even before the votes are counted and on the basis of some tally you have done yourself is outright laughable.

Mr Odinga would have cemented his place in the affections of a country already grateful to him for his contribution to the fight against dictatorship and for gifting devolution to the nation had he obeyed the law and tamed the thirst of the folks around him. But with one reckless and unlawful act, he may well have thrown his legacy out of the window.

The winner will be declared by IEBC. If you don’t like those results, go to court. Kenya is not a banana republic.

 [email protected]