Hope for calm in the Rift Valley as general election draws near

As Kenya's presidential election approaches, many in the Rift Valley feel a deepening dread.

It was in this fertile region that ethno-political violence flared in 2007 and continued into the following year after President Mwai Kibaki's disputed re-election.

About 1,100 people were killed and 600,000 displaced in the ensuing violence.

Before the 2013 elections the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin struck a political alliance, bringing together President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto.

As the August 8 election draws near, some in the Rift Valley hope the alliance will keep the region calm.

But others say the fragile peace could easily collapse.

HOTSPOTS

Seven of the 19 counties listed as hotspots for potential violence by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) are in the Rift Valley.

"While major Kikuyu versus Kalenjin conflict is unlikely during elections scheduled for August 2017, serious local violence is possible," the International Crisis Group (ICG) concluded in a May report.

Though the campaign period has been calm in Nakuru County, residents and rights groups say an undercurrent of tension runs through the region.

Joseph Omondi, a human rights activist in the region, highlights that for Raila Odinga, 72, the main opposition candidate who claimed the 2007 poll was stolen from him, "it's this election or nothing else."

"That brings tensions because, in the event that the results are disputed, it can spark violence. That's what now is creating anxiety," he added.

HATE SPEECH

In the Rift Valley, hate-speech flyers with explicit threats against those who vote for certain candidates have been circulating for months.

Human Rights Watch has documented several instances of intimidation between communities in Naivasha, another large town in the South Rift, where people were beaten, killed and forcibly circumcised during the 2007-8 violence.

Some families have already fled the town, the head of the Catholic diocese Maurice Muhatia told local media.

While insisting "it's calm, it's peaceful," Rev Adam Wachira of Naivasha told AFP there is "a sense of anxiety, because of what has happened in the past."

READ: Uhuru, Raila should calm jittery citizens

Despite heightened tension during the last presidential election in 2013, which was mostly peaceful even though Odinga claimed Kenyatta robbed him of victory, Naivasha remained calm.

This is seen as due to the alliance between Kenyatta and Ruto — who were both hauled before the International Criminal Court for their alleged role in the post-election violence. The charges were later dropped.

SUPERFICIAL RECONCILIATION

Despite their partnership, the International Crisis Group notes that "reconciliation remains superficial," in the Rift Valley, where conflicts over land have been common since Kenya's independence in 1963.

Omondi echoes the conclusion, saying the much-promised land reform efforts have never borne fruit.

"The true reconciliation is not there," said Omondi.

He believes the Kenyatta-Ruto partnership is all that is keeping the Rift Valley peaceful.

"If Uhuru [parts ways] with Ruto, you will see violence in the Rift Valley, on the biggest scale you've ever seen," he said.

PEV SCARS

Many of the scars from the 2007 unrest remain visible in the region.

Steven Mungai has lived in an IDP camp outside Nakuru ever since his shop in Kisumu was torched after the disputed vote.

A Kikuyu, he said he can never go back to Kisumu which is an opposition stronghold.

"Over there, I won't be able to sleep because if I recall what I encountered all those years, my heart starts racing," he said.

The Rift Valley is likely to remain a tinderbox, especially ahead of the next election in 2022 as it remains to be seen whether Kikuyus will maintain their pledge to back Ruto for president.