Efficient and competitive rail transport good for economy

Passengers board a CRH (China Railway High-speed) train at the Qingdao Railway Station in Qingdao city, east Chinas Shandong province, 1 August 2013. trains are likely to offer the better option over very long distances, where their running economy over many miles saves more. PHOTO | FILE

What you need to know:

  • In Kenya, as everywhere, a formula will evolve which determines quite precise distances that dictate “definitely by train” or “definitely by truck” or “both about the same”…with other factors such as urgency and perishability swaying the decision one way or another.
  • The distance will be affected by pricing and service efficiency and will vary from one type of cargo to another. Market forces are likely to ensure a significant migration to rail, which will not only make the Mombasa road more drivable but also take a significant slice of business way from long-haul trucks.

MOTORISTS WILL BE watching with keen interest to see how the new railway affects road traffic to and from Mombasa.

Currently, the road is used to haul about 2,000 containers per day,  causing levels of very large and slow traffic that make the road almost unviable for private car use.  Potentially, the new railway could halve that congestion, by carrying about 1,000 containers per day.

There are also high numbers of  long-distance buses whose passengers could migrate to rail. Will those swings happen and what might the other side-effects be?

Much of the answer lies in something you learnt at primary school:  called “break of bulk.”

In simple terms,  that is what happens when a cargo has to change from one form of transport to another, or when a container has to be opened so its various contents can be distributed to different places.

That process takes time and costs money.

It has been a crucial factor in the road versus rail equation, worldwide,  for more than a century. These are the sums: Generally rail transport is much cheaper per ton per mile of cargo, because a single engine and a single driver can do the work of 50 trucks or more.  But trains are limited to a few tracks and stations, and expensive “break of bulk” is necessary to get goods from the nearest station to their final destination.

TEMPORARY DISRUPTION

Trucks, though very much more expensive per ton per mile, can collect and deliver door-to-door – from the port to the factory or warehouse or shop.

Clearly, trains are likely to offer the better option over very long distances, where their running economy over many miles saves more than the penalty cost of transferring to short-haul trucks for the last part of the journey.

Trucks will be the better option where their more expensive running costs are over only a few miles, readily off-set by their door-to-door efficiency.

In Kenya, as everywhere, a formula will evolve which determines quite precise distances that dictate “definitely by train” or “definitely by truck” or “both about the same”…with other factors such as urgency and perishability swaying the decision one way or another.

The distance will be affected by pricing and service efficiency and will vary from one type of cargo to another. Market forces are likely to ensure a significant migration to rail, which will not only make the Mombasa road more drivable but also take a significant slice of business way from long-haul trucks.

Perhaps no matter, because that trend will simultaneously generate demand for more short-haul road transport.

Whatever the final balance, there will be change:  to cargo transport, to passenger transport, to motoring, to airlines that have offered families an alternative to an undrivable road,  to the sellers, fixers and drivers of different sizes of trucks and so on.

Change almost always causes some temporary disruption and anxiety, some winners and some losers,  but this change has the potential to have a very healthy effect in the longer term. 

Really efficient and competitive rail transport must be good for the economy as a whole and ultimately for everybody in that economy. Indeed, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new rail will be...the old road.