Extension of Dlamini-Zuma’s AU term a boost to her political career

NATION Correspondent

PRETORIA

African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s extended term in Addis Ababa could be a blessing in disguise for her domestic political career.

Dr Dlamini-Zuma gave the biggest hint she was gunning for the ruling Africa National Congress’s (ANC) top job when she opted against a second term at the AU.

She is seen as a frontrunner to succeed her ex-husband, President Jacob Zuma and had been expected back home in October in time for next year’s ANC elective conference.

But the AU recently announced Dr Dlamini-Zuma would hold fort in Addis Ababa until next January after the election of her successor was suspended. This came after the three contenders failed to garner a two-third vote.

Political analysts believe the extended term puts her in good stead ahead of her party’s decisive conference around December 2017.

Political researcher Thulani Ndlovu says the extended term affirms that the continental body has confidence in her leadership. “I believe it enhances her political profile internationally and gives her a bird’s eye-view of the ANC factions,” he says.

Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni concurs, saying remaining in Addis Ababa keeps Dr Dlamini-Zuma withdrawn from the factional fights in the ANC.

“The longer she stays away from the muddy waters of succession battle, the much better when she comes back.

“In any case, the ANC doesn’t allow for open campaigning so even if she was in the country she would not be able to criss-cross the country campaigning,” said Dr Fikeni.

Dr Dlamini-Zuma’s name has so far been associated with the “premier league” lobby, so named because it is said to enjoy the support of three provincial premiers who support President Zuma.

“Nkosazana and Zuma both hail from KwaZulu Natal Province and have been allies for a long time. Despite being divorced, they seem to be close outside political circles,” says Mr Ndlovu.

On the other hand, Mr Ndlovu says President Zuma’s Deputy Cyril Ramaphosa, “seems to have been roped in to quell dissent against Zuma”.

NO PERMANENT FRIENDS

“They don’t have a relationship outside politics and as they say; ‘there are no permanent friends in politics’,” he adds.

President Zuma is appealing against the reinstatement of corruption charges against him, a matter that might be determined after his final term in office is over.

For that reason, Mr Ndlovu believes President Zuma may want to push his former wife’s card as they have a strong political bond. Dr Dlamini-Zuma will be in Addis Ababa until next year after April. After a fresh round of elections in January, she will wind up with a three-month handover.

Even still, political analyst Ralph Mathekga says returning after April next year will not affect her bid.

The norm within the ANC has always been that the incumbent deputy president replaces the outgoing leader. However, Dr Dlamini-Zuma looks set to turn the tide.

Mr Mathekga warns that President Zuma was not just a ‘lame duck’ waiting to hand over power to the next leader, but will play a critical role in who takes over.

President Zuma has been in the media for all the wrong reasons, especially during his second term in office. The Nkandla saga in which public funds were used for non-security upgrades at his private home took centre stage. He was ordered to pay back part of that money after a long-drawn battle that was settled by the Constitutional Court.

“I think he will have a lot of influence because he controls resources; these things are fought with resources,” Mr Mathekga says. While Dr Fikeni acknowledges that deep pockets may win the ANC election, he insists that whoever woos ANC branches will land the hot seat.

He adds that Dr Dlamini-Zuma’s major challenge is that her candidacy as a woman may be viewed as a drive to derail Mr Ramaphosa. “If she fails to lobby the branches and provinces, it won’t work,” he says.

Indications are that the ANC Women’s League has already started drumming up support for her. In fact, the ANC Women’s League President Bathabile Dlamini has previously vowed to support a woman during the party’s national conference next year.

However, that seems an uphill battle as the ANC and South Africa have been dominated by patriarchy for a long time.

“As a woman, she will have to convince ANC branches that she is the right person.

“The Women’s League’s president’s public declaration that she will push for a female candidate in the coming ANC Congress could be interpreted as a thinly veiled endorsement of Dlamini –Zuma,” says Mr Ndlovu.

Dr Fikeni and Mr Ndlovu both see the Speaker of Parliament, Mr Baleka Mbete, as a likely 11th hour woman dark horse.

Interestingly, Dr Dlamini-Zuma’s bid comes at a time when strong women leaders were rising up to take their place in world politics.

Mrs Theresa May has become Britain’s prime minister. In the US, Mrs Hilary Clinton is a frontrunner to win the race for presidency in November.

HANDS-ON LEADER

The head of the International Monetary Fund and the US attorney general are women, and the next UN secretary general, due to be chosen later this year, may well be a woman.
“All those may ease the mind of people who are skeptical about women,” Dr Fikeni says.

In addition, Dr Dlamini-Zuma has always been seen as a hands-on leader who gets the job done.

She did well in three ministerial portfolios of Health, Foreign Affairs and Home Affairs.

(READ: Dlamini-Zuma joins ANC poll campaigns)

“Her global and continental grasp has been stronger than any other competitors, which puts her in a strong position,” adds Dr Fikeni.

Ahead of the Polokwane Conference in 2012, Dr Dlamini-Zuma backed former President Thabo Mbeki, but has surprisingly maintained a relationship outside politics with President Zuma.
With the ANC divisions, Dr Fikeni believes she was in a better position to flatter both Mr Mbeki and President Zuma devotees “as she has lived in both sides”.

The next ANC leader faces an insurmountable task to win back the confidence of South Africans, as well as bring the party together.

Mr Ndlovu believes, to achieve that, the ANC desperately needs a leader with a clean record.

“She’s the perfect candidate when you look at it from that perspective,” he says.

But then again, as President Zuma’s ex-wife, some may think she is coming on that particular card to continue the family dynasty.

Former ANC deputy and South African president Kgalema Montlanthe could be another late entrant in this race.

But it remains to be seen whether the ANC and South Africa were ready for a woman leader.