Why Jubilee is calling for huge turnout despite Raila pullout

Jubilee presidential campaign team members after addressing journalists at Three Steers Hotel in Meru County on October 21, 2017. They called on voters to turn out in large numbers to vote for President Uhuru Kenyatta. PHOTO | PHOEBE OKALL | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • For constitutional lawyer Kibe Muigai, Kenyans were reading too much into Mr Odinga’s withdrawal from the race, instead of respecting the decision and his right to do so

  • IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati is overstepping his mandate by sending overtures and offers to mediate between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta.

  • Raila has opted out of the repeat election ordered by the Supreme Court, but is free to participate in another poll when it is declared. It is his right to do so.

Political and legal minds on the Jubilee side think National Super Alliance leader Raila Odinga laid a snare to catch a rabbit but caught an elephant instead, when the Supreme Court nullified the August 8 presidential election and ordered a repeat poll within 60 days.

Determined to stay the course regardless of threats by Nasa to disrupt the repeat election on October 26, Jubilee’s core narrative remains that even if voters in opposition strongholds opt to snub the ballot, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters must come out in large numbers to affirm their political will.

“The country has 19 million registered voters, and over four million of them did not turn out to vote on August 8. If IEBC (Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission) opens polling stations between 6am and 6pm and only a few voters, or none, turns up, the presiding officers, their clerks and returning officers will have done their job and what they submit constitutes the result. The election is about voters, not candidates,” a source within President Kenyatta’s camp said in an interview while explaining Jubilee’s resolve to ride the storm.

In the escalating brinkmanship, Jubilee has adopted a strategy to counter the picture of a polarised terrain by holding rallies across the regions to urge supporters to come out in large numbers on Thursday to vindicate the party’s mantra that its candidate was deprived of victory by the Supreme Court’s nullification of the August 8 presidential vote.

WITHDRAWAL

For constitutional lawyer Kibe Muigai, Kenyans were reading too much into Mr Odinga’s withdrawal from the race, instead of respecting the decision and his right to do so.

“In the face of the law, a candidate volunteers to participate in an election that has been declared. Elections are declared to give voters a chance to choose candidates.

Raila has opted out of the repeat election ordered by the Supreme Court, but is free to participate in another poll when it is declared. It is his right to do so. IEBC’s job is to provide infrastructure and polling stations. Whether voters turn up or not is not IEBC’s job,” said Mr Mungai.

He said IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati is overstepping his mandate by sending overtures and offers to mediate between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta.

“The IEBC should focus on implementing the Supreme Court orders to conduct a fresh presidential election. Whether some opt to participate or not is not IEBC’s bother,” he added.

Although the decision by the former prime minister to withdraw his candidature surprised many, Jubilee Party operatives who spoke to the Sunday Nation maintain this was expected since they believe Nasa was not prepared for another gruelling presidential campaign so soon after the nullified August 8 election had taken a toll on everyone’s resources and energies.

CAMPAIGN

To make sure Nasa did not get time to regroup, replan, refuel and reassemble for a repeat presidential campaign, Jubilee moved fast to mobilise its numbers in Parliament to plug legal gaps that could be used to pull off a surprise booby trap at the eleventh hour.

What Nasa has cited in justifying its demand for a 90-day alternative to the 60-day period ordered by the Supreme Court is a 2013 opinion by the top court in response to a question by Attorney-General Githu Muigai on a candidate’s withdrawal from a presidential election.

While the law provides guidelines in case of a successful petition against a presidential election, the death of a presidential candidate before voting day, or after election but before swearing in, it was silent in the event a contestant opts to pull out of a race for whatever reason after nomination.

In response, the Supreme Court said the nominating party would be granted 90 days to pick another candidate. But this context of a repeat poll at the end of the constitutional term for the incumbent, President Kenyatta, would unleash other legal and political dynamics Jubilee seems determined to avert.

This is the logic behind Jubilee’s dash to amend the law to specifically create a provision that if a candidate withdrew, the remaining contestants should proceed to an election, in a bid to dilute the 2013 Supreme Court opinion.

President Kenyatta is yet to sign the amendments.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

“The street bravado aside, no one expected the Supreme Court to overturn a presidential election. The decision to order a repeat election hit all of us very hard. While Jubilee went berserk, protesting over its deprived victory, an exhausted Nasa was plunged into the deep end of having to raise resources, logistics and human resources to mount another campaign in 60 days,” said a highly placed source within Jubilee, who wished to remain anonymous.

Jubilee Party vice-chairman David Murathe, one of the most vocal hardliners in Mr Kenyatta’s camp, said the political outfit’s campaign had not been distracted.

“The caravans are still on the road in all the regions, and the rallies calendar will proceed as earlier planned. Nothing stops. We have deployed 11 campaign teams across the land to attend to various constituencies, some led by governors and others by former governors as well as ex-MPs and sitting MPs. Nasa will be surprised its dramatic tactics will not have the impact anticipated,” said Mr Murathe.

Jubilee was also counting on former Nasa supporters and campaigners defecting in droves to its corner, and who are now being used as mouthpieces to counter-attack  their former comrades.

DEFECTIONS

Mr Murathe said anyone who downplays the impact of the defections from western Kenya, the Maa community, Ukambani and the Coast would be making a big political mistake.

“Their impact is huge. For instance, Patrick Ntutu in Narok garnered 107,000 votes from the Purko clan, against Samuel Tunai’s 137,000 votes in the August 8 for the Narok governorship race. Ntutu and Tiampati Musuni have crossed from Nasa to JP. This has a huge impact. In Ukambani, David Musila had 90,000 votes on August 8. This is significant, so are Coast and western Kenya leaders joining Jubilee. The point is our rivals saw the approaching tsunami and bolted, than wait to be swept away,” said Mr Murathe.

“The security machinery is alert, prepared and ready down to the sub-location level. Disruption of civic processes such as elections borders on subversion. That is not politics and the law is clear on that,” said Mr Murathe.

Kiambu Senator Kimani Wamatangi, on Thursday, said  on TV: “I believe Kenya will be in a better stead to proceed with the October 26 presidential election regardless of threats of disruptions in some areas. We must not succumb to threats and intimidation.”