Battles loom as shifts in alliance upset 2013 election agreements

Deputy president William Ruto (left) shares a word with Kisii Senator Chris Obure during a fundraiser at Nyansira Secondary School in Nyaribari Chache sub-county on September 30, 2016. Mr Obure wants to run for governor. PHOTO | BENSON MOMANYI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • The new developments are upsetting informal poll pacts that triumphed in 2013 after factoring in ethnic, clan and regional considerations to win.
  • In other areas, tyranny of numbers could be used to boisterously bulldoze new alliances like it could happen in Nairobi, Kisii, Mandera and Murang’a.
  • On Friday, Narok North MP Moitalel Ole Kenta said Mr Odinga will continue beating President Kenyatta in Narok and that Mr Tunai’s reign will fall in 2017.

Gentlemen’s agreements crafted in the strongholds of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga ahead of the 2013 General Election have come to haunt the leaders nine months to the next contest.

Intense jostling for governor’s seats have hit fever pitch in these battleground counties and the political realignments ahead of the 2017 polls could cost Jubilee and Cord support, as those who fear losing the ticket for the dominant party could opt for other vehicles.

The new developments are upsetting informal poll pacts that triumphed in 2013 after factoring in ethnic, clan and regional considerations to win.

The tough battles of supremacy emanate from a cocktail of fresh ambitions and new alliances currently taking shape among both elected leaders and newcomers.

Some other realignments have arisen from leaders elected on 2013 pacts shifting ambitions and eyeing what they consider more influential seats such as the governorship.

The fight for positions seem to have focused on the governorship, regarded the most important outside the Presidency, where dominant communities in various counties are now staking a claim.

Top on the list of pacts that could be dismantled in 2017 are in Busia, Meru, Embu, Kisii, Nairobi, Mombasa, Nyamira, Murang’a and Narok.

Several senators have whetted their appetite and are bidding the senate goodbye by seeking to oust their governors.

In fact, it is the political machinations by senators eyeing the governorship that has been blamed for the regular appearances of governors before senate committees over graft allegations.

Political analysts now warn that the vicious war is likely to affect the Presidential votes in counties such as Narok, Kisii, Busia, Nairobi, Nyamira, Mombasa and Migori as it could antagonise supporters of various governorship candidates to an extent they may not vote in one basket.

“The swing vote counties could have their choice of presidential candidate influenced by how the governorship battle play out,” says Mr Dannish Odongo, a political analyst.

Mr Odongo says that negotiated democracy was bound to mitigate the common notion where the majority have their way, and the minority, their say.

He avers that smaller clans and communities within large communities feel the county cake can only reach them if one of them is in power.

TOUGH JOB
In Jubilee strongholds, the pacts are being unsettled by the collapse of constituent parties where in, Meru and Embu, for example, APK orphans want to take positions held by their TNA counterparts.

In other areas, tyranny of numbers could be used to boisterously bulldoze new alliances like it could happen in Nairobi, Kisii, Mandera and Murang’a.

The intricacy of crafting winning teams could tilt the sharing of positions especially after many leaders managed to size up the political clout that certain political seats have.

In Mt Kenya East, the Alliance Party of Kenya (APK) adopted formal line-ups.

In Meru, APK’s attempt to mitigate marginalisation of Nyambene region gave the region the governorship.

The miraa growing region comprises of Tigania East and West, Igembe North, South and Central, and has a combined strength of 238,691 votes. Peter Munya was made the candidate.

The more dominant Imenti sub-tribe which occupies Imenti South, North, Central and Buuri constituencies has 248,574 registered voters got the senatorship through Kiraitu Murungi with the Deputy Governorship going to Igembe through Raphael Muriungi.

But now, Mr Murungi has declared interest in the governorship, dismantling the earlier pact. He has crafted a new alliance where the Imenti will run for governorship with his running mate, Titus Ntuchiu, coming from Tigania West.

Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi will represent the Igembe in the senatorial race while Tigania East have been allocated the Women Representative through Florence Kajuju.

Tigania East MP Mpuru Aburi says the 2013 pact cannot hold under allegations of non-delivery by Mr Munya’s government.

“Service delivery is more important than where the governor comes from. We could not have ten years of misery just to honour some regional balancing. We want to try a new team and help the people because we have felt the national government more than the county government,” said Mr Aburi, a Murungi foe-turned-ally.

In Kisii, Senator Chris Obure crafted one of the most elaborate winning teams, slotting the populous Abagetutu clan for the governorship through James Ongwae while his Ababasi clan produced senator through him.

The Abamachoge produced the Deputy Governor through Joash Maangi while the Abanchari were allocated the Woman Rep.

Combined, these clans occupy constituencies with 219 585 voters (54 per cent), easily vanquishing the rudderless Jubilee camp captained by Prof Sam Ongeri of Nyaribari Masaba.

This time, Mr Obure has sought to disregard the MOU he authored, perhaps borrowing from Sun Tzu’s 33 strategies of war that the strategy that makes you win one battle should never be used to win the second.

ALLIANCES
Mr Obure wants to run for governor and his team has Mr Charles Nyachae from Nyaribari Chache slated for the senatorship. His running mate will come from South Mugirango.

In Nyamira, the Abagetutu clan is seeking an alliance with Abagirango from North Mugirango and Borabu where there are more settler communities to upstage Governor John Nyagarama.

Mr Nyagarama, his deputy Amos Nyaribo and senator Okong’o Mong’are both come from the Abagirango clan causing jitters about the imbalance of county seats.

The new alliance is spearheaded by former Kikutu Masaba MP Walter Nyambati and EALA Member Joseph Kiangoi who has defected from ODM to Jubilee.

Nyambati will run for governor, Mr Kiangoi for senator with Jerusha Momanyi from Borabu being their candidate for Woman Rep.

Mr Nyambati says the plan is to mitigate a feeling of exclusion by some clans.

Were these alliances to prevail in next year’s polls, the Gusii votes might go against Mr Odinga who ruled the roost in the two counties.

Did Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti betray Runyenjes MP Cecilly Mbarire?

This question lingers after Mr Kivuti declared he would run to oust Governor Nyaga Wambora.

Embu is split into two; Runyenjes and Manyatta where the Embu people live and Mbeere South and Noryth where the Mbeere people live.

In 2013, courtesy of Embu people’s numerical strength of 140, 552 voters against Mbeere people’s 86,734 voters, the Embu were allocated the governorship while Mr Kivuti represented the Mbeere in the senate race.

However, Mr Kivuti’s ambition will definitely alter the arithmetic, now that Mbarire and Wambora could split their Embu votes.

In 2013, Kiharu constituency, in Murang’a North, produced both governor Mwangi wa Iria and Senator Kembi Gitura in Murang’a county.

The region which consists of Mathioya, Kangema and Kiharu constituencies has a total of 171,943 registered votes.

The imbalance has caused concern with political leaders in the populous Murang’a South with a tyranny of numbers of 280,898 voters crying foul that they were shortchanged.

Murang’a South consists of Kandara, Gatanga, Maragwa and Kigumo constituencies.

Privy to an earlier pact that the governor comes from Murang’a South this time, Kigumo MP Jamleck Kamau is the only gubernatorial candidate from the South.

OTHER ASPIRANTS
Elected leaders from Murang’a North seem to have realised the depth of the deep seated rebellion emanating from the South and have kept off the gubernatorial race leaving the incumbent to defend it.

The realisation of the tyranny of numbers may have forced Senator Kembi Gitura to choose to defend his seat and not run for governor as earlier anticipated while Kiharu MP Irungu Kang’ata has also declared interest in the senate.

Mr Kamau declined to discuss the county balancing arithmetic but Mr Kang’ata said candidates will not be chosen necessarily by where they come from.

“If a candidate is mediocre, he or she will be rejected by their people. However, blocs will come in handy if all candidates are credible.”

Governor Samuel Tunai from the small Siria clan from Transmara was vehemently opposed by the dominant Purko clan.

Leaders opposed his leadership saying he was trading off Maasai resources and positions with outsiders.

In 2013, the Purko were represented by Johnson Nchoe and Musuni Ole Tiampati in the race for governorship through ODM and KNC respectively.

Both lost to Mr Tunai who got a huge block of immigrant communities votes which gravitate around Jubilee.

Ahead of 2017, the Maasai community insists a Purko must be governor and have elected Mr Tiampati as the clan’s flag bearer.

Instructively, Mr Tiampati who was sacked as Principal Secretary, will run on a Cord ticket after some of his key backers in 2013 shifted to Jubilee.

It is noteworthy that Cord leader Raila Odinga garnered 118,623 votes in 2013 to beat President Kenyatta who got 109,413 votes.

On Friday, Narok North MP Moitalel Ole Kenta said Mr Odinga will continue beating President Kenyatta in Narok and that Mr Tunai’s reign will fall in 2017.

“As a community, we feel ignored by Jubilee. The community has consulted widely and will back a Cord governor because their pointman here has said there is no room for competition,” said Mr Kenta.

Mr Tunai will hope to maintain his grip on the small clans and the immigrant communities that heavily back Jubilee.

Mr Tiampati, on the other hand, will seek to consolidate the Maasai vote and hope there is no split like it happened between Mr Nchoe and Mr Tiampati in 2013.

In 2013, Jubilee Alliance bigwigs led by former Embakasi MP Ferdinand Waititu struggled to craft an alliance that would see key ethnic groups represented at the county levels.

QUESTIONS RAISED
The dominant Kikuyu community were allocated the governorship and the Woman Rep position with the fifth largest community, the Gusii, getting the running mate position. The Kamba community took the Senatorship.

This line up ignored the Luo and Luhya communities as they were considered to be strongly in Cord.

Although this line up failed to deliver the governorship, the declaration by Senator Mike Sonko to run for governor has upset this arrangement, raising a possibility of a new alliance.

Elected Jubilee leaders in Nairobi led by Starehe MP Maina Kamanda have maintained the Mt Kenya ambition for governorship is still alive and threw their weight behind Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru.

Former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru is also in the race as is Water CS Eugene Wamalwa and nominated MP Johnson Sakaja.

Mr Waweru’s camp roots for the 2013 arrangement to stay courtesy of their numerical strength and has sought more elaborate negotiated democracy to include other communities for top seats.

The new alliances could complicate Governor Kidero’s choice for a line up as it will be difficult to discard the Kamba running mate even as the Luhya community cries foul of being left out in top positions in the county government. How it goes, only time can tell.

The bitter fallout between Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba and his Funyula MP Paul Otuoma on the one hand and Mr Odinga could hurt the latter’s chances in one of his traditional home turfs.

In 2013 an informal deal gave the Teso the governorship through Sospeter Ojaamong. Amos Wako, a Luhya took the Senate seat.

Dr Otuoma’s return to Mr Odinga’s fold does not take away the headache from the Cord leader because his running for the governorship with upset the delicate tribal arithmetic in the region that gave Deputy President William Ruto’s United Republican Party two MPs in 2013.

The decision by Senator Hassan Omar and Nyali MP Hezron Awiti to combine efforts and run against Governor Hassan Joho could complicate matters in the county for Cord that needs a united front against a resurgent Jubilee.