Fact Check: The truth about transition to Form One

Nyamachaki Primary School's KCPE candidates in Nyeri start their Mathematics paper on November 1, 2016. PHOTO | JOSEPH KANYI

How many students fail to join Form One every year?

“…Every year at Standard 8 KCPE, about 950,000 children sit for their exam, that is, KCPE. Every year that they sit, about 250,000 do not transit to secondary school, so if you take 4-5 years then that means every year you are eliminating 250,000 young children aged 13, 14, 15 maximum Nasa wants to make sure that the whole issue about KCPE is out of the way, so that transition to the secondary level is genuine and everybody is there….”

-          Nasa co-principal Musalia Mudavadi at the launch of the National Super Alliance manifesto at Ngong Racecourse Nairobi on June 28


Mr Musalia Mudavadi was speaking at the launch of the National Super Alliance manifesto at Ngong Racecourse Nairobi on June 28, on the rates at which children drop out of school.

In 2015, 932,000 students sat KCPE, and a total of 757,904 joined Form One in 2016, which means that 174,096 dropped out of school.

While the number of students in Standard Eight has increased by 47 per cent from 635,800 in 2006 to 932,000 in 2015, those reaching Form One have increased 142 per cent over the same period, from 313,695 to 757,904 students.

This means the number of students who did not transit to Form One has fallen 46 per cent from 322,105 to 174,096.

A total of 963400 students were enrolled in Standard Eight this year, and their transition rate to high school will be determined next year.

The last time around 250,000 students dropped out after Standard Eight was in 2008, eight years ago. However, Mr Mudavadi qualifies his claims using about, showing he is estimating.

A Nation Newsplex analysis in 2015 found that only two out of every five pupils who started Standard One in 2004 sat the Kenya Certificate of education in 2015.

Mr Mudavadi’s Standard Eight estimate of 950,000 is close to actual numbers but his estimate for dropouts at the end of primary school is considerably higher than the current figures.

However, he makes the valid point that too many children fail to transit to secondary school which has an adverse effect on life prospects.