How prepared are we for the inevitable Fourth Industrial Revolution?

What you need to know:

  • In the past one week, I have been to four key conferences, all of which discussed the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) and its impending disruptions.
  • The main concern at all of these conferences was the anticipated job losses as Artificial Intelligence (AI), one of the technologies that will drive the emerging revolution, takes over some of the jobs currently performed by humans.
  • Jobs exist that will be easily disrupted, but also new positions are being created that cannot be filled. It is not a matter of job losses but of new skills for the new jobs.
  • The global south must understand her strengths and leverage what technology can provide in enabling global, flexible and independent work – or the platform economy – that is spreading worldwide.

In the past one week, I have been to four key conferences, all of which discussed the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) and its impending disruptions.

The main concern at all of these conferences was the anticipated job losses as Artificial Intelligence (AI), one of the technologies that will drive the emerging revolution, takes over some of the jobs currently performed by humans.

The highlight of the first conference was the celebration of world standards in an event in Nairobi organised by the Kenya Bureau of Standards and themed ''International Standards and the Fourth Industrial Revolution''.

Participants were not just concerned about the future of work but also about what will happen to the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), especially in the manufacturing sector.

While many of those attending the conference were fearful of emerging technologies like AI and robotics, it was an opportune time for me to explain some of the new manufacturing models that could increase jobs rather than necessitating layoffs.

NEW MODEL

Manufacturing, as we know it today, is changing. A new model referred to as distributed manufacturing, or cloud production, has emerged to redefine the speed, cost, quality and impact of production.

Some people dismiss this emerging concept as having nothing new than we already know from the Coca Cola model of distributed production through a network of collaborators spread across the world.

Distributed manufacturing mimics the Coca Cola model but leverages technology to create a large number of partners that create an agile supply chain.

This model of decentralised manufacturing is gaining ground. It uses a network of geographically dispersed manufacturing facilities that are coordinated by Information and Communications Technologies.

The model brings manufactured items closer to end users to reduce logistics and any environmental damage resulting from centralised production, thus shortening time between production and sale.

Distributed manufacturing would likely lower the cost of production in areas far away from big cities and bring jobs to smaller economies.

The impact will be enormous, not because it makes moral sense but because it will discourage rural-urban migration by redistributing labour across the national landscape.

It will help large enterprises create a manufacturing platform to reduce location risk and lower their distribution costs. Companies will be able to build the capacity to expand or contract the infrastructure to cope with economic waves.

More importantly, the new cloud manufacturing will create capacity in rural towns that will eventually lead to a reduced gap between MSMEs and large enterprises by growing some of the partnerships into large enterprises.

SKILLS RENEWAL

Another strategy that we discussed and one that can reduce the risk of job losses is reskilling. Just focusing on job creation isn’t sufficient, people must begin to embrace the concept of lifelong learning to be relevant in future.

ICTs have made it possible for individuals to continuously keep renewing their skills to cope with the dynamic technological changes that face the world today.

Chances are that more than 70 percent of professions and organisations will be disrupted by the emerging digital transformative technologies. Change is therefore inevitable in virtually every aspect of our lives, including manufacturing, and we must manage it or it will manage us.

Some of the participants expressed concern that not much emphasis is placed on the development of MSMEs, or protecting them from adverse technological advancements, yet they create most of the jobs.

It was proposed that, as in most of the newly industrialised countries, MSMEs must be closely guided by the state in order to give them a chance to build capacities and knowledge that can close the gap between MSMEs and large enterprises.

The largest untapped potential lies in value addition for agricultural products and in streamlining supply chains.

STRIKE A BALANCE

Jobs exist that will be easily disrupted, but also new positions are being created that cannot be filled. It is not a matter of job losses but of new skills for the new jobs.

There is a need to strike a balance between present and future jobs, develop new capabilities and exploit the arising opportunities.

For this to happen, the global south must understand her strengths and leverage what technology can provide in enabling global, flexible and independent work – or the platform economy – that is spreading worldwide.

Pierre Nanterme, chairman and CEO of Accenture, once said, ''The Fourth Industrial Revolution demands that CEOs take responsibility for the massive transformation of their businesses and for the extraordinary impact that this transformation will have on wider society.''

This means that we embrace change but also provide solutions on risk mitigation.

The writer is an associate professor at the University of Nairobi’s School of Business. Twitter: @bantigito