In Summary

Since President Uhuru Kenyatta signed a deal with China to export avocados, the impact of the deal has been exaggerated.

Although Kenya is identified as one of the key exporters, FAO estimates its production capacity at a paltry 200,000 metric tons a year.

To make a dent in such a market, Kenya will have to produce and export 100 million avocados a day to China before thinking about other markets like Europe which has always been our traditional export destination.

The avocado craze is just another new opportunity that must be exploited for the benefit of communities that languish in poverty while such opportunities exist.

When President Uhuru Kenyatta signed a deal with China to export avocados, there was a celebratory mood, as farmers anticipated a new and large market for the crop.

Media continues to exaggerate the impact of the deal, with some reporting as though the country is overflowing with avocados.

The numbers, however, paint a different picture. According to Food and Agricultural Organization’s 2017 report, Major Tropical Fruits, Market Review, global production of avocado reached an estimated 5.7 million tonnes in 2017.

Mexico, the World’s largest producer, contributed more than two million tonnes, representing one third of the global production.

More than half of the global production takes place in south and Central America with Peru, Chile and Dominican Republic contributing the most.

The report estimated that the global exports of avocado reached 1.6 million tonnes in 2017, of which Mexico accounted for an estimated 58 percent of global avocado exports, with shipments predominantly destined to the US.

According to the report, Mexico shipped an average of 77 percent of its avocado exports to the US between 2010 and 2016:

Mexico’s strength lies in its ability to produce avocado in all seasons and also its close proximity to the US, which gives the country a unique competitive advantage. Other key producers included a two percent increase from 2016. On the back of rapidly growing global demand, avocado, among all the major tropical fruits, has seen the fastest production growth over the last decade, primarily due to increases in harvested area in the major producers.

The report points out that other significant exporters are South Africa, Israel and Kenya. These countries all primarily export to the European Union and benefited from fast growth in its import demand for avocado.

Mexico is a less prolific exporter of avocado to the European Union, as prices received in the US are significantly more lucrative.

SOCIAL CROP

Although Kenya is identified as one of the key exporters, FAO estimates its production capacity at a paltry 200,000 metric tons a year. Other than Central Kenya where there is some activity of formal production of avocados, the rest of the country hardly considers avocado as a cash crop. It is largely a social crop that grows randomly on its own.

A more serious farming of the fruit in Kenya is done by Kakuzi on approximately 717 Hectares. The firm exports both Fuerte and Hass cultivars.

Unlike Mexico where the crop produces throughout the year, in Kenya, the Hass season runs from June to mid-September and Fuerte season starts a little earlier in March or April.

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