Be careful with calls for a ‘return to normal’

Testing for coronavirus is carried out at Kenya Coast National Polytechnic on May 14, 2020. PHOTO | KEVIN ODIT | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • We are still struggling with low numbers of health workers, with limited supplies and infrastructure in national and county facilities.
  • Some countries have ensured that they have the capacity to handle any surge in numbers should it occur after easing restrictions. We are not there yet.

Human beings get tired of keeping still.

They get restless and start looking for new things to do to “kill the boredom”. This is especially so in the current case where due to movement restrictions, many people are stuck at home with little to do.

Some are suffering the harsh effects of these restrictions, and it is understandable that they would get restless and begin wondering when “life will go back to normal”.

This natural human tendency is now driving the discussions in many sectors about reopening the economy and “learning to live with this virus”.

Unfortunately, this is the first time we are confronting a phenomenon such as the one precipitated by Covid-19.

While we have had other pandemics in the past, this is the first time a pandemic has spread so fast across the world, reaching all corners of the planet in a matter of weeks.

Secondly, this pandemic has come to us at a time when the world is more connected than ever before, and information reaches very distant places, sometimes before it reaches people in its immediate neighbourhood.

ADEQUATE RESEARCH

Very little is known about the lethality of this virus, and the kind of immunity people develop after an infection, making it difficult to determine what risks can be taken “safely”, and which ones are tantamount to mass killing of sections of our population that are vulnerable.

Research approvals and publications have been expedited in all areas of Covid-19-related work, but this has come with a multitude of problems that the peer review process was set up to cure.

Premature findings are being presented as authoritative results, as idle musings of individuals are placed on the same evidential pedestal as actual research conducted under rigorous conditions.

It is, therefore, very premature, from a health and safety perspective, for a country like Kenya to start contemplating a ‘return to normal’ life with the attendant increase in personal contact and risk of infection.

As things stand currently, we do not have a clear epidemiological picture of this pandemic in Kenya. Without this information, it is difficult for the health sector to prepare and plan for any eventuality.

We are still struggling with low numbers of health workers, with limited supplies and infrastructure in national and county facilities.

HEALTH SYSTEMS

Thus, any measure we take must recognise the risk of the health system getting overrun in the event of a surge in numbers of people with severe illness.

There are countries that have scientifically eased restrictions by doing widespread testing and finding that community spread has been largely controlled, and that there is limited risk of reintroduction in those territories.

Further, those countries have ensured that they have the capacity to handle any surge in numbers should it occur after easing restrictions. We are not there yet.

Having said all that, it must be emphasised once again that the decision to restrict movement or to ease restrictions is a heavily political one, and the government will have to take responsibility for it and any subsequent consequences.

Those of us in the health sector will continue advising on the risks inherent in certain decisions, but the final responsibility will lie with the political authorities.

Anyone calling for a return to normal must realise that the ‘normal’ we are facing will be very different from yesterday’s ‘normal’, and prepare accordingly.

Lukoye Atwoli is Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Moi University School of Medicine; [email protected]