Western isolationism may set off new Scramble for Africa

The referendum in Crimea has touched off, perhaps, the most dangerous crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. And Africa is, understandably, fretting about the probability of a new Cold War.

In a subtle way, the complex crisis in Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula reveals the cascading security effects of the pervasive use of “social unrest” as an indirect means by world powers to engineer change in leadership and leverage their strategic interests in weaker states.

The dangerous effects of this power gambit were earlier witnessed in the disastrous “Arab Spring” in North Africa and the Middle East. Ukraine and Crimea are two other tragic cases of this strategy gone awry.

The crisis started in late 2013 as a classic proxy project pitting the West against Russia over Ukraine. It came to a head when the pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych, declined to sign a Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement which would have put the country on course for European integration.

Instead, Yanukovych accepted a bail-out of $15 billion (Sh1.3 trillion) and 30 per cent discount in gas prices offered by Russia, drawing Ukraine closer to the Russia-led Customs Union. But after months of West-backed social protests, Yanukovych lost power in what the Russia Federation decried as a “coup d’état”.

Russia moved to pre-empt the possibility of its fleet in the strategic Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea replaced by American-led NATO forces.

In a fast-moving series of events, Russia masterminded a referendum in which 95 per cent of a largely Russian population in Crimea and Sevastopol voted to become a part of the Russian Federation, and President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty making the peninsula part of Russia. (READ: Putin recognises Crimea as independent state)

This has thrown the world into a crisis characterised by tit-for-tat sanctions amid continuing meltdown in Ukraine, and increasingly frosty relations between Washington and Brussels on the one hand and Moscow on the other. (READ: US expands sanctions in Ukraine row)

Pundits have ruled out a Cold War redux. But the Crimean conflict is a game-changer in the global order of things, with far-reaching implications for Africa. Analysts are focusing on the implications of the Crimean referendum to Africa’s ethnically divided states.

Richard Dowden, Director of British Royal African Society, warns the referendum in Crimea is a dangerous precedent and a bad model for Africa.

AN ASSERTIVE AFRICA

But this amounts to over-egging the pudding because, scanning the horizons, there are no signs that the Crimean referendum is having any severe domino effects on African geo-politics, or influencing break-up of states.

An assertive Africa has echoes in Putin’s speech to parliament that highlighted three ideological tenets: history matters; national interests are supreme; and the right of nations to self-determination is indispensable.

Africa is viewing Crimea through the prism of its own history (of slavery, colonialism and cold war era repression) and interests, as well as the cliché of “African solutions to African problems”. In this regard, practically every forum on Africa’s relations with the West is now dominated by the role of the International Criminal Court.

Ahead of the 4th EU-Africa Summit of African and European Union leaders, as well as the leaders of EU and African Union institutions, slated to take place in Brussels on April 2-3, African leaders have insisted that the termination of ICC cases touching on Kenya and Sudan should be firmly on the agenda.

Also pointing to Africa’s new assertiveness, the future of the ICC on the continent was the focus of a high-level meeting of African and Western policy makers, think-tanks, academics and civil society actors convened jointly by the Brenhurt Foundation (Johannesburg) and the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies (Addis Ababa) on March 18 — the same day Russia annexed Crimea.

A radical conclusion from the meeting was that, judged against the continent’s history and interests in a hegemonic global order, the ICC has become the greatest threat to Africa’s sovereignty, peace and stability.

Nevertheless, Africa has maintained a cautious silence on the Crimean crisis. But the Pretoria-based Pan-African Parliament supported the referendum as a right of nations to self-determination. Former Ghanaian president, Jerry Rawlings, reportedly led a discussion which accused the West of double-standards.

“No one has the right to call the will of the Crimean people expressed at a referendum into question”, said one PAP deputy.

On its part, Russia is actively wooing Africa. This week, Moscow dispatched to the continent Mikhail Margelov, Putin’s special envoy for cooperation with Africa, who is also head of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Putin’s envoy attended a special session of the PAP and also met key African leaders, including Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Mauritania’s President Mohamed Abdel Aziz, who is also the AU’s chairperson.

Besides the moral backing by Africa’s 55 states on Crimea, Russia is seeking Africa’s participation in an upcoming International Economic Forum in St Petersburg which was mooted following Putin’s discussions on economic cooperation with 20 African leaders on the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in South Africa last year.

Response to Ukraine and Crimea points to a world hurtling down the road of national populism and global isolationism. But Africa should not be worried about a new Cold war, which is nearly impossible in a globalised multi-polar world.

In any case, the Crimean conflict is not about ideologies but rather about military strategy and economic influence. Today, Europe is dependent on Russian oil, gas, and strong trade ties with Moscow. The real danger is if this isolationism sets off a new 21st Century scramble for Africa by old and emerging powers.

Prof Kagwanja is the Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute. [email protected]