With so many forces against him, Ruto may have to fight to the end

Deputy President William Ruto. Neither President Uhuru's nor former President Moi's coattails will be available for Dr Ruto to hang on. PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Whichever way the war of attrition ends, Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga look primed to fight the bitterest, most ferocious and most vicious contest Kenya has ever seen.

  • This thanks to the betrayal of Dr Ruto by first Mr Odinga as the DP's boss as party leader and as Prime Minister.
  • Then by President Kenyatta with whom the DP had a pact borne of their arraignment at the International Criminal Court and two successful campaigns for the presidency.

The unspoken message from Kabarak to Deputy President William Ruto was clear: stuff your condolences! Alas. This is unprecedented, but why do they hate him so?

Here's proof Dr Ruto must fight until he is the last man standing on the treacherous road to State House. He is on his own.

Neither President Uhuru's nor former President Moi's coattails will be available for Dr Ruto to hang on.

SKUNK AND EUNUCH

He must fight despite the fact that the forces arrayed against him are fearsome and awesome and are coalescing around the President, former premier Raila Odinga, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and organised labour supremo Francis Atwoli, among others.

He must fight their arsenal which comprises sustained public humiliation, drip feed of allegations on graft in a war of attrition, and change of the constitution aimed at expanding the Executive by creating offices of prime minister and deputy prime ministers.

And he must fight so that this war of attrition does not kill his State House dream nor extinguish the flame of family that inspires him. The DP has his hands full. Literally!

Those who wage wars of attrition employ all strategies possible to exhaust the resources and assets of the adversary, wear him down, and cripple his capabilities to pose a threat.

So the objective is that come 2022 the allegations of graft, court cases or impeachment, if it gets to that, will have gradually drained the DP physically, emotionally and financially as to render him a political shell, skunk and eunuch.

But quite apart from targeting Dr Ruto, the jockeying and jostling for vantage positions in the Kenyatta II succession will continue to rearrange and realign the political landscape because alliances will shift and shift again on the road to 2022. Resulting exigencies will force the hands of the players.

MOBILISATION

In this regard, President Kenyatta will have to decide whether and when the governing Jubilee Party will hold internal polls as part of its preparation for the 2022 General Election.

On current evidence, these would consist in getting rid of Dr Ruto's allies from the interim positions they hold or ensuring they would not get those they sought. Turbulence awaits as polls would split the party down the middle ahead of a General Election.

And what are his plans for Mr Odinga? Meantime, Mr Odinga sucks oxygen out of the room; upsets the Jubilee apple cart; puts the cat among the pigeons; and, worse, though unelected, he declares war on an elected DP.

Whichever way the war of attrition ends, Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga look primed to fight the bitterest, most ferocious and most vicious contest Kenya has ever seen.

This thanks to the betrayal of Dr Ruto by first Mr Odinga as the DP's boss as party leader and as Prime Minister. Mr Odinga sacked Dr Ruto.

Then by President Kenyatta with whom the DP had a pact borne of their arraignment at the International Criminal Court and two successful campaigns for the presidency.

The current language of discourse, a continuation and escalation of the bitter 2017 presidential campaign, is a pointer to what is coming.

Thanks to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga and counter attacking DP, mwizi (thief), mganga (magician), msaliti (betrayer), muuaji (murderer), mlafi (greedy), name it, are taking take centre stage in the mobilisation of the populace three years to the General Election.

PUBLIC COFFERS

That means the spinning of Mr Kenyatta's and Mr Odinga's March 9, 2018 rapprochement as a union of peacemakers determined to rid Kenya of, inter alia, electoral violence has come a cropper and been exposed as a vehicle for scuppering the DP’s presidential ambition while boosting Mr Odinga's.

Kenya's faiths are caught up in the Ruto imbroglio and will be a factor in the race or casualty of it or both.

This is evidenced by the current controversy engulfing Catholic and protestant clergy as regards acceptance of money from politicians at fundraisers.

Clergy are being accused of helping Dr Ruto launder corruptly acquired money and, therefore, partaking in the rape of public coffers and the rotting of politics. Perhaps as a sign of the times, fundraising for churches, always a staple of Kenya's electoral politics, is now being vilified as mammon.

Just as clergy are being pushed to shun the DP’s money so also are Central, Mt Kenya and Coast politicians, especially sitting MPs and governors, being arm-twisted to stay away from his public functions or withdraw their support for him altogether.

Plague and plaque?