‘America First’ policy: Is the US shooting itself in the foot?

The entrenched relations that the United States has built in Africa since the independence of most African states had been getting deeper over time until the inauguration of President Trump. It comes out clearly from research (2017) that was done across the world by the Pew Research Centre headlined U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership.

The quantitative result of the research showed that a median of just 22 per cent has confidence in Trump to do the right thing on global affairs, in contrast to 64 per cent as median for Obama’s confidence level to direct global affairs in the right direction. Samples from some of the 37 nations surveyed are as follows (Trump gets higher marks than Obama in only two countries, Russia and Israel):

Among the notable reasons for the global deterioration of the US image are: Trump’s policy stances on retreating from international trade agreements and climate change accords; barring entry into the US for people from certain Muslim-majority nations; backing away from the nuclear weapons agreement with Iran; and Trump’s character, described as arrogant, intolerant and even dangerous.

America’s favourable view is held because US popular culture is seen more positively than the US as a country. Roughly two-thirds of people across the countries surveyed like American music, movies and television. However, a global median of 54 per cent worry that the influx of US customs and ideas into their country is a bad thing. In greater detail, when asked whether American ideas and customs were good or bad in their countries, African countries responses were as follows:

The “America First” policy implies disengagement from global agreements, and so far withdrawals have been from the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement (TPP) and the Paris Accord on Climate Change. African countries responded as shown below:

When asked whether relations between their country and the US will improve over the next few years, get worse or stay about the same, the responses were quantified as follows:

In the same report, when Trump, Russian Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and Germany’s Angela Merkel are sampled across the 37 nations surveyed the results are as follows:

NB: President Xi and Chancellor Merkel are somewhat less well known than Trump and Putin. Roughly one in five worldwide do not offer an opinion about the Chinese and German leaders.

Across the globe and in Africa, Tanzania has the most favourable view of President Xi on whether he will do the right thing regarding world affairs, followed by Nigeria, Senegal, Russia and the Philippines as shown:

In view of these findings, it can be concluded that China is gaining over the world in a snowballing manner, beginning with Africa. The heavy investments made by China in infrastructure, education, research and culture are critical factors boosting her image, risks notwithstanding.

With the intention of finding markets for her excess industrial capacity and tapping into the minerals and resources in underdeveloped hinterlands across the world, China is taking advantage of the backlash against trade and immigration in the US and Europe.

So far, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, France and Italy have publicly endorsed the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative, where $50 billion was invested between 2013 and 2017 and $500 billion is expected to be poured into 62 countries between 2017 and 2022, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

Unlike the US, whose people are looked upon more favourably than the country itself, for China the opposite could be true. In a self-criticism article, Prof. Qiao Xin Sheng notes that the Chinese are seen as a people with a nouveau riche mentality, that Chinese officials are too stilted on diplomatic occasions, that the Chinese media does a poor job in disseminating China’s views abroad and that Chinese people still lack self-confidence as citizens of an increasingly powerful nation.

The favourable opinions of China as a country and a people need different approaches in various regions where the Chinese command some level of influence. This is a lesson that should be noted by African countries in their diplomatic engagements, in efforts to attract Foreign Direct Investments and boost the continent’s image abroad through soft power as a viable instrument.

An advantage that could work for African countries’ image abroad is the diaspora Africans, African heritage, music and art that is appreciated and liked though unheard of in other parts of the globe — we could pick up as the US is at the pit stop before the Chinese catch up.

The author is the managing director of the Centre for International and Security Affairs, a think tank based in Nairobi. This article was first published by the NLM.