What depressing bank results say about state of economy

Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick Njoroge at the Villa Rosa Kempinski Nairobi hotel on March 18, 2017. PHOTO | ANTHONY OMUYA | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • We must all accept the bitter truth that the banking sector is not in very good health.
  • The law introduced last year for capping interest rates will only serve to compound the twin problems of soaring non-performing loans and deteriorating asset quality.

We are in the middle of the season when banks report their annual results and accounts. As we all know, the banking system is a reliable barometer for tracking the performance of the economy.

I have been poring through the annual accounts that have been published so far to see what might be revealed, not only about the state of economic activity, but also look at trends in performance of banks, especially how they have been grappling with interest rate caps.

What picture comes out as you look at the numbers in the published audited accounts of banks for last year? First, non-performing loans are on an upward trend. You will see that even banks reputed to have a high quality portfolio are reporting a spike in bad loans. The ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans is also trending upwards.

The most dramatic is a case where one of the big retail banks that has always been keeping its non-performing loan ratio at a level way below the industry average, has this time around, reported a trebling of bad debts.

Secondly, we have seen the worst case of loan growth demand in decades. Is it just a matter of seasonality in credit demand? No. The phenomenon is most likely a reflection of stressed private sector balance sheets. How are banks responding to the rate-capping regime?

NON-PERFORMING LOANS

We are learning the lesson that when you have high non-performing loans in a controlled interest regime, something has to give. And, what is the most distinguishing feature and trend of the changing conditions? Banks have responded to the rate-capping regime by running away from their core business – taking deposits from customers and lending to businesses – to the lazy option of shovelling all the money into government paper.

When you track the numbers, you will find that the proportion of profit that comes from the core business of intermediation is on a decline. Earnings from investment in government paper, fee income, handling of payments and trading activity are contributing more to revenues and incomes.

In a sense, this should not surprise. Our banks are operating under a regime where prices of inputs are controlled at 70 per cent of the Central Bank Rate, while output prices are capped at four per cent above the CBR.

Lending spreads, the difference between lending and borrowing rates – are capped at seven per cent. This is an environment where lending spreads have, in most parts, been in double digits. Clearly, the shift to over-reliance on government paper is not a matter of choice for banks. Indeed, interest rates on the lucrative paper such as infrastructure bonds are in the range of between 12 per cent and 14.5 per cent net of tax. When you factor in the tax element, it means these instruments yield a gross amount of between 19 and 20 per cent.

CRITICISE STRATEGY

One of the big banks has broken all records by investing hundreds of billions of shillings in government paper. It is not for me to criticise the strategy. But a strong argument can be made that banks that take money on short-term from depositors and lock it out in lucrative long-term government paper - commit the sin finance wonks call asset mismatches. What is even more interesting is that some banks would appear to have chosen the opposite direction. A closer look at the numbers being reported shows that two big ones have not increased holdings of government paper in any significant ways. One of the large banks has left the exposure on government paper where it was before.

In another case, a big bank has cut exposure to government securities while increasing the one to households and firms in a significant way.

I see a situation in the coming months when the banks that have stuck with their customers will start launching aggressive marketing campaigns to capture the market share left by peers that have rushed to lend to the government. There are broad policy lessons to learn from the trends.

BITTER TRUTH

First, we must all accept the bitter truth that the banking sector is not in very good health. This comes through very clearly as you look at the soaring non-performing loans and a deceleration of credit growth.

Secondly, the rate-capping law introduced last year will only serve to compound the twin problems of soaring non-performing loans and deteriorating asset quality. A banking sector that concentrates on directing national savings to government paper promotes consumption while ignoring wealth-creation. Honesty and prudence should compel the government to repeal the interest rates capping law.