Get used to it: Our term of Parliament is four years

Parliament buildings in Nairobi.

What you need to know:

  • Majority of Kenyans, including all politicians, expect it to be in the year 2022; but my view is that it should be in 2021.
  • The 2022 view is based on the simple math that 2017 + 5 = 2022. However, if that logic is applied to the date of the last election, it doesn’t seem to work out.
  • The first election under the new Constitution was held in 2013, therefore, since 2013 + 5 = 2018, so the second one should have been held in 2018.

I hope this will be the last time that I write on the subject of election dates.

I hope too that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) will clear the air by formally gazetting the date of the next General Election.

Majority of Kenyans, including all politicians, expect it to be in the year 2022; but my view is that it should be in 2021.

The 2022 view is based on the simple math that 2017 + 5 = 2022. However, if that logic is applied to the date of the last election, it doesn’t seem to work out.

The first election under the new Constitution was held in 2013, therefore, since 2013 + 5 = 2018, so the second one should have been held in 2018. The question then is: why did we hold a General Election in 2017?

Lawyers like to say that “the law is very clear,” but I prefer to say that our Constitution is very comprehensive. It has even given the rules to be followed when determining the duration of events. This is what it says in Article 259:

“In calculating time between two events for any purpose under this Constitution, if the time is expressed as… years, the period of time ends at the beginning of the date of the relevant year that corresponds to the date on which the period began.”

AUGUST 2021

Thus, if something is supposed to last one year starting from today ( January 7, 2018), it should end “at the start” of January 7, 2019. Now by international convention, a day begins at midnight. So, this duration will end one second after 11:59:59pm on January 6, 2019.

In the same way, the fifth year after March 4, 2013 will end one second after 11:59:59pm on March 2, 2018. But the Constitution says that elections should be held “on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year.”

For that reason, holding the General Election in August 2018 would have been illegal. That month will be in the sixth year.

That is the reason we held the General Election in August 2017. When we apply this logic starting from August 8, 2017, we find that the fifth year will end “at the start” of August 8, 2022.

That is, one second after 11:59:59pm on August 7, 2022. Let me repeat: August 8, 2022 will mark the beginning of the sixth year.

Now looking at the calendar for 2022, we find that the date of the second Tuesday in August is the 9th. This date will be in the sixth year!

For that reason, we must go back to August 2021. The fifth year starts on Sunday the 8th. So the first Tuesday in the fifth year will be the 10th and the second one will be the 17th. Therefore, the date of the next General Election will be August 17, 2021.

All in all; we must get used to the fact that our term of Parliament is four years long, not five!

www.figures.co.ke Twitter: @mungaikihanya