- The scale of violence is the worst the country has witnessed in some time.
- People in Harare complain that the administration is akin to a new driver in an old taxi.
- Zimbabwe desperately needs reform if the government is to keep the country reasonably stable and preserve its re-engagement with international donors
The Zimbabwean government’s decision to hike fuel prices has sparked fierce opposition.
Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant Piers Pigou explains how economic hardship is driving ordinary citizens to unprecedented acts of resistance.
What triggered this explosion of unrest?
On January 12, in response to persistent fuel shortages compounded by manipulation and mismanagement of a currency crisis, President Emmerson Mnangagwa announced a fuel price hike of over 200 percent to $3.31 per litre – making the country’s petrol price the highest in the world.
It is unclear how this move would address the shortages, outside of pricing fuel out of the reach of many; already, the knock-on effects of transport and commodity price increases are adding evident stress to ordinary Zimbabweans’ lives.
The massive rise sparked a general strike, along with widespread protests, which in many areas was characterised by violence and considerable destruction of property.
Those behind the strike did not call for demonstrations, but thousands, especially young people, took to the streets, with many looting shops and burning cars or buildings. Protests were concentrated in and around the main opposition strongholds, the capital Harare and Bulawayo, but also appeared in cities elsewhere across the country.
In turn, the government ordered a vicious clampdown – deploying soldiers as well as police.
At the end of the second day of protests on January 15, Zimbabwe’s Doctors for Human Rights released a statement saying “hundreds shot, tens estimated dead in rampant rights violations across Zimbabwe”. Their assessment included reports of 107 patients treated for gunshot and blunt trauma wounds.
For days after that, it was hard to obtain updated casualty figures. The government blocked internet services, both at the outset of the unrest and again on January 18, severely disrupting the flow of information and contributing to widespread confusion.
On January 18, the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum was able to publish consolidated statistics counting 844 human rights violations during the general strike.
These numbers include: At least twelve killings; at least 78 gunshot injuries; at least 242 cases of assault, torture or inhumane and degrading treatment, including dog bites; 466 arbitrary arrests and detentions; and many displacements (with the number being verified). Other violations are invasion of privacy, obstruction of movement, and limitation of media freedoms and access to information.
Protesters have also engaged in intimidation, violence, vandalism and looting. The government confirmed that they stoned one police officer to death; there are several unconfirmed reports of fatalities and injuries among the security forces.
The extent of the property damage has yet to be determined, though human rights groups have documented at least 46 instances. The country’s main cities are at a standstill.
The government and media have accused the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), trade unions and civil society groups backed by foreign funders (the US and Germany were named) of orchestrating the protests as part of a campaign to undermine the government and elevate the MDC’s leader, Nelson Chamisa, into office.
Such accusations are par for the course when the government faces protests; based on experience, it seems unlikely it will supply compelling evidence to support these claims.
Did the unrest come out of the blue?
Anger at the government has been building for some time. On my last visit to the capital Harare in December 2018, the country’s economic woes were plain to see.
Prices in shops were soaring, retailers were closing down and queues for petrol were lengthening as the country struggled to juggle payments for competing import priorities.
Control over the country’s fuel supply is in the hands of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and the huge financial benefits that come with it are reportedly causing factional rivalry. There is widespread public speculation that the shortages are caused by inter-elite squabbles or even deliberately engineered.
The price hike thus ignited the already dry tinder on the ground. On January 13, one day after the announcement, civil society groups backed a call by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions for a three-day “stay-away,” or general strike.
Underlying the skyrocketing prices of fuel, food and other goods is a currency crisis that has been worsening through much of 2018. In 2009, facing similar hyperinflation, the government abandoned the national currency, and switched the economy over completely to the US dollar.
After an election in 2013, in which it ran on a platform of job-creation and economic recovery, the ZANU-PF government demonstrated astonishing levels of financial delinquency.
It “financed” its own systematic over-expenditure with massive borrowing. Domestic debt, which stood at just $442 million in 2013, surged to $10.5 billion by February 2018 and has climbed further over the past year.
In 2016, as more and more dollars drained out of the economy, the government introduced a new “bond note” currency, nominally at parity with the dollar, in an attempt to make up for cash shortages, as well as direct electronic payments into bank accounts for goods and services.
These payments included the salaries of civil servants, the last bastion of formal employment. It was the equivalent of printing money over and above the value of the reserves in the central bank.
The government continues to claim parity between the bond note, electronic balances and the dollar. With most financial transactions being cashless, this mythology of official parity was maintained, although the bond notes and electronic reserves were trading at a lower rate.
But both the latter quasi-currencies have rapidly depreciated since the government introduced fiscal and monetary reforms in October, leading prices for goods and services to spike across the board.
The runaway inflation in turn has prompted panic buying and widespread shortages of critical goods such as medicines. It has cut the value of ordinary citizens’ earnings and savings by more than half, further impoverishing an already struggling populace.
In the weeks following the fiscal reforms, as purchasing power evaporated, the entire public-sector work force began organising to confront the government. Since early December, Zimbabwean doctors have been at loggerheads with the government, crippling central parts of an already degraded health care system.
On January 8, the Apex Council, an umbrella body representing civil servants, issued the government the statutory two-week notice that it would call a general strike to protest the government’s refusal to pay civil servants in hard currency, namely US dollars.
Is there precedent for this level of violence accompanying protests in Zimbabwe?