Why Igad wants Riek Machar, others in Juba's interim govt

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar. US wants their properties investigated. PHOTOS | SAMIR BOL | ZACHARIAS ABUBEKER | AFP

What you need to know:

  • And if accepted, it will mean South Sudan will have more ministers, more legislators and an indefinite timeline on when elections will be held.

  • In the proposal, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and his allies— such as First President Taban Deng Gai— will retain a massive control of the transitional government with a 55-percent stake.

  • The rebels, under Riek Machar, who is still under House arrest in Pretoria, will control 25 per cent while the splinter groups under the South Sudan Opposition Alliance will take 10  percent.

Mediators in the South Sudan conflict are proposing to balloon the transitional administration in a bid to solve the long running dispute by accommodating splinter groups, but which could potentially increase the cost of running affairs.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), which has been midwifing the deal, says the proposal reflects “a considered effort to identify middle ground” from all parties.

MINISTERS

And if accepted, it will mean South Sudan will have more ministers, more legislators and an indefinite timeline on when elections will be held.

In the proposal, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and his allies— such as First Vice President Taban Deng Gai— will retain a massive control of the transitional government with a 55-percent stake.

The rebels, under Riek Machar, who is still under House arrest in Pretoria, will control 25 per cent while the splinter groups under the South Sudan Opposition Alliance will take 10  percent.

The rest of the posts will go to other political parties.

“The parties shall make necessary adjustments to the power-sharing formula adopted in the ARCSS (2015), to better reflect the new realities in South Sudan and in particular, to ensure the inclusivity of the revitalised (Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU),” says the draft agreement referring to the collapsed agreement signed in August 2015.

Igad wants South Sudan to tinker with its current legislature, expanding the number of MPs from the current 400 to 440.

First, the extra 68 MPs that were created under the collapsed deal will be wiped out in 90 days after the agreement.

332 SEATS

“The duration and term of the expanded and reconstituted TNLA shall run concurrently with that of the Revitalised TGoNU, until such time as Elections are held,” it says, leaving it open for the incumbent to dictate when and how elections will be conducted.

The country will then revert to the original 332 seats that existed before the conflict in 2013.

New slots will then be created— 70 from Riek Machar’s rebel group SPLM-IO and 38 from other parties, all of whom will form the Transitional National Legislative Assembly.

The proposal was tabled on Tuesday in Addis Ababa during the final day of the current phase of “revitalisation” talks where parties are trying to renegotiate a new deal.

Foreign Cabinet Administrative Secretary Ababu Namwamba, who represented Kenya at the talks, says Igad was fronting a position that accommodates all parties and who agree there is an urgent need for a solution.

“Peace is not a choice but the irreducible minimum.  The parties to this conflict owe it to the children, youth, women and all the great people of South Sudan (who have suffered in the violence),” he argued.

But critics may point out ballooning the government for a country that almost entirely depends on oil for survival may be imprudent.

INFLATION

According to a March bulletin by the World Bank, 70 per cent of South Sudan’s national budget goes to security and administrative costs, while just six per cent goes to health and education.

With an inflation rate of 367 percent, South Sudanese lawmakers last  year endorsed a $300-million budget, but with oil production falling to 110,000 barrels per day due to war (down from more than 250,000), the government  struggled to finance operations with public servants going for months without pay.

Mr James P Morgan, South Sudan’s Ambassador to the African Union, told the Nation that his country can turn around economic fortunes if they attain peace.

“The whole problem in South Sudan is about power. When we talk of inclusivity, everybody has to be accepted. If there is peace, the economy of South Sudan will improve significantly. We just need the silencing of the guns,” he argued.

But the envoy refused the idea that Riek Machar should be part of the government, saying he was the problem.

"The people in the region do not know the kind of person Riek Machar is. If he comes to South Sudan, he is going to create problems.

WAR

"We are tired of war. The people of the world are asking us what is wrong with South Sudan. But we are also asking them what is wrong with them?

Igad is proposing that South Sudan consider adopting the federal system, by first devolving power to far-flung communities as a way of dealing with feeling left out.

“The ARCSS (2015 agreement) already recognises that a federal system of government is a popular demand of the people of South Sudan, and that there is a need to reflect this demand by way of devolution of more power and resources to lower levels of government, and to initiate preparations for the adoption of a federal and democratic system of government within the permanent constitution-making process.”

Under the new proposal, South Sudan’s transitional government will still be headed by Salva Kiir, but has introduced a third vice president, meaning there will be three deputies under him— one who will come from Dr Machar’s side and two from his side.

It has also raised the number of Cabinet positions from 30 to 42, but cut down the stake of the rebels from 33 to 25 per cent, something that could easily be a bone of contention.

65PC STAKE

Kiir will still control the 28 states after Igad gave him a 65 per cent stake.

But the state issue was controversial under the old deal after President Kiir controversial increased them from 10 to 28.

“The proposal makes armed conflict attractive: the message of Igad, in the proposal, is if you take up arms, you will get into power even if it means creating additional ministries and government positions to accommodate you – it will be done,” argued Dr Remember Miamingi, a South Sudanese academic who teaches at the University of Pretoria.

“The proposal rewards violation…it punishes compliance. The 2015 agreement was violated by the Government of the Republic of South Sudan multiple times. Instead of being reprimanded, GRSS is handsomely rewarded in the proposed responsibility sharing.”

Still, there are doubts about how parties trust one another even if they sign the deal.

Igad has said a permanent ceasefire is compulsory, but previous such deals on ceasefire were violated.

REJECTED

On Wednesday, the South Sudan Opposition Alliance rejected the proposal, saying it was one-sided and fails to address issue of who should be accountable for the violence.

A special security committee is to assess, within four months, the security needs of the military, how to merge, when to merge, size and command.

The unification of forces shall be completed within a year after an agreement.

“The parties shall endeavour to secure such protection through: (a) agreed third party arrangements; alongside, (b) joint special arrangements.

“The parties hereby invite Igad to urgently engage appropriate third parties, including the United Nations, the African Union and countries of the region to explore viable options for the provision of security to ensure the safety and participation of opposition leaders in the transition.”