Raila Odinga’s fresh headache in deal with Uhuru

The growing possibility that the final report by the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) task force may not recommend a referendum has plunged Opposition leader Raila Odinga in a fresh dilemma.

The uncertainty follows leaks from within the BBI team that President Uhuru Kenyatta, much as he has previously declared the need to cure the curse of a 'winner takes it all' situation in each election cycle, may have indicated his discomfort with a plebiscite coming just around the next general election given its disruptive nature in his last days in the office.

Mr Kenyatta is said to be worried that a referendum will take all the attention from his legacy projects in the Big Four Agenda, comprising manufacturing, universal healthcare, food security and affordable housing.

Mr Odinga has openly said that the country will likely have a referendum to, among other things, alter the structure of the executive by introducing a parliamentary system to eliminate ethnicisation of the presidency.

But signals from the BBI team appear to be pointing to a different direction.

KIBRA POLLS

While the suspicion that Mr Odinga may get the shorter end of the stick has always lingered among some of his handlers since the March 9, 2018 political truce, it is Mr Kenyatta’s last week’s endorsement of soccer star McDonald Mariga to run on a Jubilee ticket in the Kibra by-election slated for November 7 that has given birth to fresh doubts.

There have since been two brainstorming sessions on the same at the new Orange House, in Nairobi’s Lavington suburb.

High-ranking ODM officials confided in Sunday Nation that after Mr Kenyatta’s endorsement of Mr Mariga, the party has decided to assemble its strategists to carefully examine the import of the President’s action, which to them not only suggests bad faith on his part but also points to what may happen in the final days of his term in office.

“We do not want to be caught flat-footed. They say a week is a long time in politics, now what can we say about an election that is three years away? Many things shall have happened by then and we must stay on top of the game,” a senior party official said while asking not to be quoted for fear of breeding bad blood between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.

PARLIAMENT

We also learnt that a team of technocrats is pushing for a parallel arrangement to easily help Mr Odinga change course immediately in the event the handshake collapses.

They say that barring any pact with other players, Mr Odinga remains their best bet for the 2022 presidential election.

Seme MP James Nyikal, who also chairs Duol (a caucus of Luo Nyanza MPs), admitted that the decision to endorse Mr Mariga came as a shocker.

“Let’s see what happens in Kibra, although I expected Jubilee to support us on this. We must now mobilise our troops to come out in large numbers to vote for the ODM candidate, Imran (Okoth),” he said.

The Orange party had always viewed Mr Mariga as Deputy President William Ruto’s man, and they had no qualms with it staying that way given the fact that the latter has always harboured reservations about the handshake until Mr Kenyatta came into the picture.

“Our assumption was that since there is cooperation with our party leader, a win for ODM in Parliament would still help advance Kenyatta’s interests in the House,” another lawmaker said.

In the absence of a referendum, Parliament would then become the arena for any push to change the laws without altering the structure of governance.

IEBC

With Mr Ruto enjoying majority support, or so it is thought, in the bicameral parliament, Mr Odinga may be disadvantaged in the process.

Already the DP allied MPs recently managed to outnumber those supporting the handshake by passing necessary amendments to kick-start the process of replacing the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) commissioners who resigned early last year.

An attempt by Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, one of the closest allies of Mr Odinga in the post handshake days, to push through an amendment that would have seen IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati sent packing was shot down.

Mr Kenyatta’s alleged misgivings about the referendum, were they to come to bear, would offer a huge boost to Mr Ruto who is on the record opposing any push to change the Constitution before the next elections. He wishes to inherit the presidency as it is.

Mr Nyikal however urges Mr Odinga’s supporters not to despair based on mere speculations on what BBI shall recommend. “We have not seen the report and as such; we cannot engage on its content,” he said.

DILEMMA

Prof Amukowa Anangwe, who teaches political science at the University of Dodoma, Tanzania, says that while Mr Kenyatta desires a change in the supreme law, he is cautious and would likely leave Mr Odinga to do the donkey work and push it with the real risk of shouldering a backlash should it go wrong.

“I doubt Raila is foolish enough to take the parliamentary route in the absence of a broad-based initiative. Without which it would be a false start for him,” he said.

On Saturday, lawyer Paul Mwangi, the co-secretary in the BBI, asked Kenyans to wait for the report instead of speculating on its outcome.

“We are yet to finish and thus would not want to discuss about the report. It would be premature,” he said without giving any credence to the leaks coming from within.

But sceptics in the Orange party regret they are deeply in cooperation with Mr Kenyatta, which may make it hard for Mr Odinga to go back to his supporters to say that he has been short-changed should Mr Kenyatta abandon him.

On the other hand, Mr Kenyatta’s endorsement came as a huge relief for Mr Ruto who did not hide his joy when he declared thus: “Now that Mariga, Jubilee's Kibra candidate, was cleared by IEBC and formally unveiled today by our party leader, it is all systems go. The ball is squarely in the court of all of us leaders serving under President Uhuru, party members and supporters to deliver the seat. Twende kazi jameni (lets hit the ground running).”

PATTERN

Mr Charles Othina, a lecturer at Maseno University and political commentator, avers that it should not shock ODM supporters when Mr Kenyatta endorses his deputy to succeed him in 2022.

“The President needed Mr Odinga to his side to pacify the country and rule in peace. He has achieved that. Nothing stops him from declaring support for his DP ahead of the next elections. They appear to have some tacit arrangement on the same. Let’s wait and see,” he said.

But Mr Mohamed sought to assure ODM supporters that all was well.

“To those in the party who are not privy to inside information, .... I want to assure them that there is no cause for alarm. Mr Kenyatta remains the leader of Jubilee Party and is expected to discharge such duties in the party that calls for his attention, even with the handshake, and so is Mr Odinga. Didn’t you see Raila meet our candidate for Kibra as well? The handshake is intact.”

He however admits that many within the party’s rank and file have grown jittery after the Mariga endorsement.

While his handlers reckon that he has been in this game long enough to over-trust, it may not be the first time Mr Odinga is running back to his supporters to say he has been short-changed.

First, it was cooperation with President Daniel Moi after the 2002 merger of his defunct National Development Party (NDP) with Kanu.

NASA

They soon parted ways after President Moi announced Mr Kenyatta as his preferred successor later that year.

Then came President Mwai Kibaki whom he endorsed in 2002 polls with his now famous ‘Kibaki Tosha’ declaration.

They would soon fall out after Mr Kibaki failed to honour a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in which he was said to have been promised the position of prime minister.

The Nasa coalition, having suffered a natural death after co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia, Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula accused Mr Odinga of keeping them in the dark about his dalliance with Mr Kenyatta, many observers are of the view that one of the things the new order has done is to neuter Mr Odinga’s powers in the opposition.

Were he to part ways with Mr Kenyatta, many in his corner argue he will need more time to assemble another formidable front to be able to match up to Jubilee as it was before the 2017 General Election.

“It will be extremely difficult to save Nasa from imminent collapse now. How else would you explain the chaos in Kibra where Musalia, just like Weta, have all fielded candidates against ODM’s Imran? On the other hand, Kalonzo is uninterested,” former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama holds.