Mixed messages on Kenya-US relations

NEW YORK

Despite Kenya's bitter criticisms of the United States' actions during the past year, behind-the-scenes relations between Nairobi and Washington remain strong, envoys on both sides say.

Some independent analysts suggest, however, that the two countries' rapport is fraying due to Kenyan mistrust of US intentions regarding the administration of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.

The 50-year friendship reached a turning point a year ago when then-Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson warned Kenyans of unspecified “consequences” for relations with the US if certain candidates – universally understood to be Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto – were elected as the country's leaders.

“Since the 'consequences' statement that, to many analysts, was meant to influence voting in Kenya, the trust between the current government and Obama's administration has been eroded significantly,” comments Mwangi Kimenyi, a Kenyan who heads the Africa programme at a leading Washington think tank.

On its part, the US believed that Kenya's international standing would be degraded if voters were to choose two men accused of committing crimes against humanity. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have been charged in the International Criminal Court with having orchestrated violence that took the lives of some 1,300 Kenyans and forced more than half-a-million people from their homes.

In insisting that the ICC proceedings should go forward, Washington sees itself as upholding the principle of accountability for powerful figures. The United States does not, however, expose its own officials to prosecution by the ICC.

There is “puzzlement” among Obama administration officials regarding “the extraordinary amount of vitriol flowing from Nairobi in the direction of the US,” says former US Ambassador to Kenya Mark Bellamy. “It's more than any of us can recall.”

'DESTABILISING GOVT'

Relations between Nairobi and Washington will “have hit an all-time low,” Mr Kimenyi observes, if it is proven that the US Agency for International Development is funding groups working to destabilise the Kenyan government. That allegation was made last week by Francis Kimemia, chairman of the National Security Advisory Committee. (READ: Report on USAid ‘won’t affect Kenya-US ties’)

But even if there is no factual basis for Mr Kimemia's claim, Mr Kimenyi adds, the allegation reflects deep suspicions toward the United States. “My conclusion is that relations between the US and Kenya are actually very bad and founded on mistrust,” declares the Kenyan scholar based at the Brookings Institution in Washington. (READ: Kenya lashes out at US over demonstrations)

The US is not seeking to loosen President Kenyatta's grip on power but is affirming democratic freedoms and the right of dissent in Kenya, Mr Bellamy says. “There is an effort underway in Kenya to restrict media and the flow of information and to restrict the scope of what civil society and NGOs are doing. So naturally there's going to be pushback from the US.”

Nairobi's negative assessment of Obama administration policy toward Kenya has been deepened in recent months due to developments related to the International Criminal Court cases against President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto.

Mr Obama excluded his father's homeland from his Africa itinerary this past summer largely because the US calculated that a stopover in Kenya would be seen as a negation of the threatened “consequences” of a Kenyatta victory.

A few months later, Kenya's UN ambassador reacted angrily to the US abstention on a United Nations Security Council vote on a proposal to defer the ICC cases for one year.

Then came charges by Mr Ruto's defence attorney that a former US ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, had recruited witnesses to testify against Mr Ruto. Current US Ambassador Robert Godec rejected that claim.

But the perception remains widespread in Kenya that the United States favoured a presidential candidate other than Mr Kenyatta.

READ : MUTIGA: Time for UhuRuto to call off their campaign-era war with the West

And all the subsequent contentions regarding American interference in Kenya's internal affairs “suggest that the health of Kenya-US relations is in a state analogous to a patient in the 'intensive care' unit,” Mr Kimenyi remarks.

In Mr Bellamy's view, however, Kenya is erring by making the ICC cases “the centrepiece of its foreign policy and a litmus test of its friends and enemies.” Such an order of priorities “diminishes the importance of overall US-Kenya relations,” the former US envoy suggests.

RELATIONSHIP 'REMAINS STRONG'

The critical rhetoric emanating from Nairobi has meanwhile had no effect on diplomatic relations, says Kenya's US Ambassador Jean Kamau.

“I don't see any change in our relationship,” Ms Kamau said on Friday. “It remains strong. My access in Washington is normal.”

A spokesman for the American embassy in Nairobi offers the same perspective from the US side.

“Ambassador Godec and other US officials in Nairobi continue to have excellent working relationships with their Kenyan government counterparts,” spokesman Christopher Snipes wrote in an e-mail message to the Nation. “The ambassador has frequent and regular contact with Kenya’s leaders and with Kenyans across the country. Our ability to work on the many programmes and issues of US and Kenyan mutual concern has not changed.”

Mr Snipes also pointed to recent examples of continued partnership between the two governments. He noted US assistance provided in the aftermath of the fire at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in August and the attack on the Westgate mall the following month.

President Obama made telephone calls to President Kenyatta on both those occasions and has subsequently invited the Kenyan leader to take part in an Africa summit meeting in Washington in August.

The US has also worked closely with Kenya in response to the crisis in South Sudan, Mr Snipes said.

It is in the interests of both nations to repair whatever damage may have occurred as a result of the ICC cases and US efforts in support of Kenyan NGOs, Mr Kimenyi suggests.

“Kenya and the US need each other and both sides need to build bridges to restore the good relations,” he says. “But it does appear that the US has to do more to regain the trust, given the recent foreign policy blunders.”

Mr Bellamy doesn't see the situation that way.

“Kenya would be making a mistake in thinking it's strategically vital to the United States,” says the ex-ambassador, now a professor of international relations at Simmons College in Boston.

He cites the example of Somalia, which some analysts have viewed as a key factor behind the conciliatory US responses to criticisms made by Kenyan officials. Prevailing wisdom holds that Washington cannot afford to jeopardise Nairobi's role as a bulwark against the spread of Al-Shabaab's terrorism.

But the reality is that while “Shabaab is a big problem for Kenya,” Mr Bellamy says, “Shabaab is a small problem for the US.”