Salvos fired on 2022 poll after Raila-Moi handshake

A few hours after opposition leader Raila Odinga visited retired president Daniel arap Moi at his Kabarak home, National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale fired a warning shot that revealed the thinking in Deputy President William Ruto’s camp.

“Those visiting mzee Moi are allowed to go and tell him pole (sorry) because he served us for 24 years,” Mr Duale said on the floor of the House on Thursday afternoon.

He then warned: “But those who intend to be in the 2022 race, you don’t need such visits. Come and face us.”

At 93, Mzee Moi is still a powerhouse in Rift Valley politics.

Being an expert in the game of political chess, the former Head of State can alter the landscape.

RECOVERY
The official reason Mr Odinga visited Mzee Moi was to wish him quick recovery after a knee surgery in Israel last month.

But 2022 politics and the place of Mr Moi’s son, Baringo senator and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, could not escape political observers.

“There are discussions to have Raila endorse Gideon Moi in 2022, I can tell you that,” Tiaty MP William Kassait Kamket, who attended the two-hour meeting, told the Sunday Nation.

“I do not know how this will pan out, but I can tell you, in the meeting, 2022 was definitely in the picture.”

Kanu secretary-general Nick Salat, who was also present at the meeting, described it as “very good.”

“For us, as Kanu, the gesture by Raila to visit Mzee was well received.

"We want to play our part in bringing this country together. It had become a situation where you could smell division. You could touch the hatred,” Mr Salat said.

GIDEON MOI
Though he refused to divulge whether the two leaders discussed 2022 politics, and specifically Gideon Moi’s own campaign, Mr Salat asked those worried by the visit to calm down.

“People should calm down. It was just a handshake! What is this panic about?

"What are people worried about? You mean Mzee can’t meet people? What we talk about is: Oh, he is fighting someone,” he said.

Were Mr Odinga to endorse Mr Gideon Moi for the top job in 2022, observers say, Mr Ruto, arguably the direct Jubilee candidate in the polls, might be the biggest loser.

While Senator Moi is no match for the Deputy President on his own, backing by Mr Odinga could thrust him onto the national stage.

NASA
And there is another problem caused by the Raila-Moi relationship: The opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa).

Nasa co-principal and Mr Odinga’s 2013 and 2017 elections running mate Kalonzo Musyoka on Friday downplayed the significance of the meeting.

Indeed, were Mr Odinga to endorse any other person, let alone Senator Moi, Mr Musyoka’s own chances at the top job would be severely damaged.

“I must congratulate my brother because I saw him going to visit Mzee Moi. I also want to go and see Mzee Moi.

"I think Uhuru should also go and see him because I don’t think he has seen him yet since he (Moi) came from Israel. If you read something beyond that, I don’t understand it,” Mr Musyoka told journalists on arrival from Azerbaijan where he had led an election observer mission.

KINGMAKER
And so Mr Odinga finds himself at the centre of a vicious succession battle for an election four years away.

If he does not run, he might be the most valuable kingmaker.

On one side are his Nasa co-principals who insist that he must honour their deal and back one of them in 2022.

And on the other is Mr Ruto, who has set his eyes on the prize and who, it appears, will furiously oppose any bid by the ODM leader to back a person from the Rift Valley to run against him.

While he does not seem to mind Mr Odinga backing any other politician, Mr Ruto and his lieutenants have taken a keen interest in the workings of the younger Moi, coupled with intense fear that those in government, including President Kenyatta, may upstage him in favour of the Baringo senator.

“Any attempt to discuss altering the 2022 Jubilee candidate is to step on a live wire. It is like sitting on a transformer,” nominated MP David Sankok said.

PEACE DEAL
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei dragged the Uhuru-Raila March 9 handshake into the debate, suggesting it was under threat if Mr Odinga were to continue with plans for 2022.

“We are not happy with his moves within Jubilee, now that he has shown us his secret card that he is willing to push Gideon to run against William Ruto,” Mr Cherargei said.

But in another twist Mvita MP Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, while insisting that ODM will field a candidate in the 2022 poll, said the party will be reaching out to other politicians, including Gideon Moi, for support.

“We want to assure everyone that we did not go there to undermine anyone. Come 2022, we will all battle it out,” he said on Thursday.

A short video released by the former president’s communications team showed a sharp mzee Moi who, at his age, could relive events easily.

“People have not known what it means by unity,” Mr Moi said. “Unity between you and Uhuru is good for the country.”

DP RUTO'S CAREER
Mr Odinga replied: “All of them are looking at 2022. And we didn’t understand. We told them: Let us first bring the country together, and speak with one voice.”

But Tharaka-Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki said that Mr Odinga should stick to working to unite the country in line with the handshake deal.

“He went to see Moi, and instead of talking about how to unite the country, they are talking about 2022.

"We want to tell them: There is no relationship between the handshake and 2022 politics,” Governor Njuki said.

University of Nairobi’s Herman Manyora said the Moi-Raila handshake may herald the end of Mr Ruto’s political career.

“Why do you think Raila went to see Moi? Maybe to irritate Ruto, to smoke him out of his cool, then giving the three big families a chance to throw him under the bus,” Prof Manyora said.

RECONCILIATION
However, he says, if the three families gang up against Ruto, he might emerge, to his advantage, as the “candidate of the weak”.

And speaking in Homa Bay on Saturday, Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria said Mr Odinga had instructed MPs allied to his opposition coalition and Jubilee to spearhead reconciliation meetings.

Mr Kuria said: “When I visited Mr Odinga in his office, he told me that the handshake is useless unless we devolve it to Kenyans.”

Mr Kuria, who joined Homa Bay Woman Representative Gladys Wanga and Rangwe MP Lilian Gogo at Odienya SDA Church in Kochia, Rangwe constituency, said his meeting with Mr Odinga was about reconciliation.

Mr Kuria donated Sh1 million to the church.

Additional reporting by Barack Oduor